A 69% Weekly Spike Meets the Overheating Rule, and HOLD Wins Anyway
Carrot's rare Finalist print nearly doubled its price this week, but our system's overheating check kept it parked on HOLD instead of flashing green.
The board's biggest mover today isn't subtle. Carrot's CS 25-26 Event Pack Finalist print climbed 69.3% this week, now sitting at A$664.83. That's the kind of chart that gets collectors reaching for their wallets, and it's exactly the kind of chart our system is built to be suspicious of.
The stamp stayed HOLD. Not because the card is bad, but because this is what the overheating check is for: when a price runs this hard, this fast, we want to see room below the prior peak before calling it a buy. A vertical spike into thin air isn't the same setup as a steady grind higher, and our backtesting says chasing the spike is usually the losing move.
Today's top moves
Carrot (CS 25-26 Event Pack Finalist Ver.) rips 69.3% this week to A$664.83, but stays HOLD on overheating grounds.
Scratchmen Apoo (Online Regional 2024 Finalist) is up 63.3% this week and 124.4% over 30 days, a two-month run that's earned it plenty of attention but still just a HOLD.
Charlotte Oven jumped 45.8% this week to A$24.10, HOLD stamp intact.
![Brannew (Online Regional 2024) [Finalist]](https://eqqbnafuxciluxqemrif.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/mirror/51/51f81ac035315dedc75a31d2f61a2f2eb64c1d63.jpg)
Brannew (Online Regional 2024 Finalist) is the one exception on this list: up 30.7% this week and 54.3% over the month, and it's carrying an ACCUMULATE flag, meaning the system still sees runway here.
Kouzuki Toki adds 25% this week and 65.4% over 30 days, another HOLD despite the heat.
Four of five names above are cooking, and only Brannew gets the green light. That split is the whole story today: a big weekly number alone doesn't move our system, what matters is whether there's still room to run beneath where the card has already been. Historically, accumulate-stamped cards like Brannew have traded higher about three times out of four within four weeks of the flag, averaging +17.8% over that stretch and stretching to +32.0% by the eight-week mark. Chasing the vertical spikes on the sell side of the ledger, meanwhile, has averaged -6.1% over the same four-week window, a losing habit our overheating check exists to keep you out of.
What we're watching: BCG Fest Dallas runs September 18-19, the largest North American prize-promo supply event of the season, and it's stacked with CS Event Pack and Finalist Ver. prints, the same print type driving Carrot's and Scratchmen Apoo's runs here. A fresh wave of finalist-print supply could cool exactly this kind of card. The Set Sail Deck Set SD01 also lands September 18, carrying broad reprint risk for staples it reprints. And the next Treasure Cup, in Gatineau on September 27, will be the first read on how the format settles once BCG Fest results are in.
Catch you tomorrow.