Articles
Market wraps, deep dives, and set reviews from the ledger desk.
Crocodile Doubles in a Week, and the Board Still Says HOLD
Crocodile OP14-120 is up 114.8% in seven days, yet the board keeps it at HOLD. Here is why a big weekly number is not the same as a signal.
A Split Board: OP14 Alt Arts Surge While Tournament Promos Get Dumped
Crocodile's OP14 alt art has more than doubled in a week while a cluster of 2023 tournament promos has lost half its value or more. Here is what the Ledger's numbers say about both sides.
When a Month's Worth of Gains Lands in One Week
Crocodile's weekly gain of 145% outruns its 30-day move, a sign the whole rally landed in seven days, so the board keeps it on HOLD. Plus two thin-market promotions to Accumulate.
A 162% Weekly Spike, and the Board Still Says HOLD
Crocodile OP14-120 is up 161.9% in a week and Shakuyaku is not far behind, yet both sit on HOLD. A look at why a hot chart and a flagged signal are different things.
A Finalist Promo Jumps Almost 40x, and the Board Still Won't Blink
Charlotte Smoothie's CS 26-27 Finalist promo is up more than 3,700% on the week, yet the Ledger holds it at HOLD. Here is why, plus Shakuyaku, Marco, and a cooling Silvers Rayleigh.
A Best Selection Card Triples, and the Board Still Says Hold
Shakuyaku's Best Selection print is up 162% on the week and 245% on the month, yet the Ledger's verdict is HOLD. Here is why a loud chart and a quiet stamp can both be right.
A 37-Fold Weekly Spike, and Why Four Sales Do Not Make a Trend
Charlotte Smoothie jumped roughly 3,726% in a week on just four sales. Today we separate the moves with real volume behind them from the ones without.
A Gold DON Card Doubles in a Month, and the Board Stays Calm
A Luffy and Loki gold DON from OP17 is up 75.1% in 30 days, yet the Ledger still says HOLD. Plus four more weekly movers, and why thin markets need a second look.
Luffy Nearly Triples in a Month, and the Board Still Says Hold
OP05-119 Luffy is up 167.5% this week and 179.3% this month, yet the stamp is still HOLD. Here is why the shape of a rally matters more than its size, and where the quieter ACCUMULATE cards sit.
One Card Number, Twelve Printings: The Nami OP01-016 Price Ladder
Nami OP01-016 trades from A$1.09 to A$2,889.66 depending on the printing, and EB-05 is about to add a thirteenth. Here is what the ladder looks like today.
Luffy OP05-119 Doubles in a Week, and the Board Steps Back
OP05-119 Luffy is up 112.3% on the week to A$29.61, and the Ledger moved it from Accumulate to Hold in a single day. Here is why a big move can still mean wait.
![Crocodile (Online Regional 2023) [Finalist]](https://eqqbnafuxciluxqemrif.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/mirror/6f/6f6d4e4b95b983122b5b92f770e95740a6ea2747.jpg)
A 58% Weekly Spike Still Can't Earn Crocodile an Upgrade
Crocodile's finalist promo jumped 58.6% in a week and the Ledger still says HOLD. Here is why a loud week is not the same as an earned signal.
![Otama (Online Regional 2023) [Finalist]](https://eqqbnafuxciluxqemrif.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/mirror/7e/7ea95f59b2e27a628ac5d232abb3c738e6dd2ce6.jpg)
The Board Picks Otama's Quiet 48% Over Smoker's Loud 68%
Four cards posted bigger weekly gains than Otama, yet all four sit on HOLD while Otama alone carries ACCUMULATE. Here is how to read that gap.
Withdraw Now Doubles Again, and the Board Barely Blinks
A budget reprint is up 120% this week and 169% over the month, yet the board still reads HOLD. Here is why a monster week is not the whole story.
Smoker Rips 129% and the Board Still Won't Call It a Buy
A wall of triple-digit weekly gains hit the board today, and almost none earned an upgrade. Here is the overheating discipline at work.
A Starter Deck Trafalgar Law Just Quadrupled, and the Board Still Won't Blink
ST10's Trafalgar Law leader is up 378% on the week to A$25.60, and every one of the five biggest movers on the board is still stamped HOLD.
Mihawk Is Banned From Oct 12, and the Market Has Already Moved
Bandai announced the OP14-020 Mihawk ban on Sep 24. Within four days the alt art Leader lost about half its value, and the PSA Magazine promo is following.
A $3,750 Card Just Earned the Board's Rarest Green Light
Boa Hancock's regionals promo flipped to ACCUMULATE at an eye-watering price today, while four different cards up 400%+ this week still can't shake their HOLD tags, and a competitive ban is quietly rewriting Dracule Mihawk's chart.
Mr.3's 509% Week Still Can't Buy an Upgrade
A cluster of alt arts posted some of the wildest weekly numbers we've logged, yet the board refused to chase any of them into ACCUMULATE.
Benn.Beckman Rips 294% This Week and Is Still Down for the Month
The alt art posted one of the loudest weekly gains on the board, but the 30-day chart tells a very different story, and that gap is the real headline today.
Five Alt Arts Just Went Vertical This Week, and Not One Earned an Upgrade
Mr. 1, Mr.3, and three other alt arts logged some of the wildest weekly gains we've tracked, yet the board kept every single one on HOLD. It's a real-time look at how strict this system stays around vertical spikes.
![Marshall.D.Teach (Online Regional 2023) [Finalist]](https://eqqbnafuxciluxqemrif.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/mirror/0c/0c54e8febe7c3fd2b5954024ae737db76d90793c.jpg)
Marshall.D.Teach's ACCUMULATE Call Is Already Up 27%, and the Board Got More Decisive Today
A flagged conviction pick is cashing in early while Mr. 1's alt art quietly quadruples, and the board's overall stamp mix just shifted harder toward extremes.
A 349% Week, and the Board Still Won't Call It a Buy
Four alt-art HOLDs more than doubled or tripled this week, but only one card on today's board earned a green light.
TCGplayer's Backend Just Named Five OP-18 Leaders, Two Months Early
On Sept 21, TCGplayer's product feed quietly added five new OP-18 Leader singles, sixty days before the Nov 20 street date. Here is what we can and cannot say about them.
Charlotte Katakuri Sheds Its Warning Label and Rips 87% in a Week, and the Board Still Isn't Chasing
A card that was flagged SELL WATCH just two days ago is suddenly the week's biggest percentage mover, and it's not the only HOLD-stamped rocket confusing collectors today.
Buckin's 919% Monthly Run Just Added Another 41%, and the Board Still Won't Blink
A cheap OP08 promo is up nearly tenfold in a month and climbing again this week, but our system's overheating check keeps it parked on HOLD instead of chasing the spike.
![Scratchmen Apoo (Online Regional 2024) [Finalist]](https://eqqbnafuxciluxqemrif.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/mirror/10/10bb8640750f57d993d78e2e170beb383d659a97.jpg)
Scratchmen Apoo Rips 63% in a Week and the Board Still Says HOLD
A finalist print doubles in a month while the sell list quietly grows, proof our board cares more about what's next than what just happened.
Carrot's Finalist Print Rips 69%, But the Board Won't Chase It
A rare Finalist-stamped Carrot rallied 69% in a week and still can't shake its HOLD tag, while the sell-watch list quietly grew for the second day running.
While the Week's Biggest Gainers Sit on HOLD, Brannew Earns the Board's Only ACCUMULATE Tag
Carrot, Scratchmen Apoo, and Charlotte Oven all posted huge weekly gains today, yet the board stamped every one of them HOLD. Only Brannew, up a quieter 30.7%, got tagged ACCUMULATE, and the data shows exactly why this system separates hype from room to run.
![Brannew (Online Regional 2024) [Finalist]](https://eqqbnafuxciluxqemrif.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/mirror/51/51f81ac035315dedc75a31d2f61a2f2eb64c1d63.jpg)
A 69% Weekly Spike Meets the Overheating Rule, and HOLD Wins Anyway
Carrot's rare Finalist print nearly doubled its price this week, but our system's overheating check kept it parked on HOLD instead of flashing green.
Four Luffy Prints Are Sliding, and the Board Says It's Barely About Luffy
Four different Monkey.D. Luffy prints show double-digit weekly declines right now, the kind of cluster that looks like a story. We pulled the full board to check whether it actually is one.
SD01's Full Card List Just Leaked a Week Early, Confirming Five Cheap Reprints
TCGplayer quietly listed all 25 SD01 singles a week before street date, and the checklist shows exactly which current staples are about to get cheaper to find.
The Sell List Just Got Smaller, Even as Luffy's P-080 Keeps Ripping
Our board cooled off overnight with fewer cards flagged SELL WATCH, but one promo Luffy just will not stop climbing, and the system still refuses to chase it.
Belo Betty Nearly Doubles, and the Board Still Says Wait
A wave of alt art gainers posted triple digit weekly and monthly moves today, and almost none of them cracked the buy list.
Vivi Doubles Overnight, and the Board Still Won't Blink
Nefeltari Vivi's Judge Pack print more than doubled this week, but she's parked on HOLD alongside a cluster of triple-digit gainers as the sell list quietly grows underneath them.
Luffy's P-080 Rockets 125% in a Week, and the System Still Says HOLD
Five promos and alt arts more than doubled this week, but our overheating check kept every one of them on HOLD.
Five Big Weekly Gainers Flood the Board, and Only One Gets a Green Light
Luffy's P-080 promo just posted a 152% weekly spike and still can't shake its HOLD stamp, while a much quieter Trafalgar Law print earns the system's confidence instead.
A 717% Monthly Spike Just Walked Into Our System and Left With a HOLD
Buckin's near eight-fold climb since last month is the kind of chart that gets collectors talking, but our system isn't budging past HOLD on it, and it's got company today.
Buy Signals Are Climbing Back, and the Sell List Just Turned Too
Ten days after OP-17's launch nearly wiped out our rarest buy signal, it has climbed for a full week straight, and the four-digit sell watch list just posted its first pullback.
Newgate's Manga Print Rockets Past $1,600, and the System Still Won't Chase It
A 2,000% weekly gain landed on the board today, but it's stamped HOLD, not BUY, and that's the real story in a market still working through OP-17 supply.
A 2,081% Weekly Spike Landed Today, and Our System Shrugged
A manga-print Whitebeard multiplied more than twenty times over in a week, and our board still won't call it a buy. Here's why that discipline matters more than the chart.
Sell Watch Cracks Four Digits While OP-17's Big Names Keep Sliding
The sell watch list broke four digits for the first time this week as OP-17's biggest leaders keep sliding, but Nico Robin's rebound and Borsalino's upgrade to accumulate show the damage isn't hitting every card the same way.
A Brand-New Trophy Tier Lands This Weekend, and Nobody Knows How to Price It Yet
The Flame-Flame Fruit Coliseum debuts today with a first-of-its-kind trophy card, landing on a prize-promo ladder so thin that most of it barely trades at all.
An 87% Weekly Gainer Just Got Stamped HOLD, Not Buy
Rocks Pirates nearly doubled in a week and our system still won't chase it, while OP17's headline leaders keep bleeding value into their third weekend.
A Manga-Print Sabo Just Quadrupled in a Month, and Our System Won't Chase It
Sabo's rare manga print rocketed 122% this week and 316% this month, yet it's still sitting on HOLD, a live example of why we don't reward straight-up spikes.
Two Championship Finals a Season Now, and OP-17's Leaders Are Entering the First One Underwater
Bandai's 26-27 season now runs two Championship Finals instead of one, starting with Europe on September 5 and North America on September 18, and all six OP-17 Super Leader alt arts are stamped SELL_WATCH heading into it.
This Card Nearly Tripled in a Week, and Our System Still Says Wait
Saint Shalria rocketed up more than 190% in seven days, but the board still won't call it a buy, and that discipline is worth understanding.
The first OP-17 weekend of real competition came and went. Nothing caught a bid.
OP-17 hit shelves on 28 August and the first big North American events ran the next day. Of the 160 OP-17 singles we track, 155 fell over that window, a median of 59.4 percent. Sealed, which had been the one exception, rolled over too.
New Page: Top Calls. See Exactly How Our Calls Are Going, Right Now
We made the calls, now you can watch them play out. One page, every open call, measured from the day we flagged it. First one up: the OP-17 presale cards we said to sell before launch are down 60 to 75 percent.
Franky finally gets a Leader. Here is what his back catalogue looked like the day before.
Bandai revealed the first Franky Leader in the game's history. We track 15 Franky products, average price $18.67 USD, median 52 cents. Here is the dated starting line, published before the outcome is known.
Every OP-17 Parallel but One Fell Less Than Its Own Base Card
On OP-17's first full day of English supply, four of five parallels gave back less of the week than their own base printing. The fifth, Shanks, went the other way. The liquidity gap explains more of it than the rarity does.
A Single OP-17 Card Just Gave Back Almost Its Entire Week
Shanks OP17-020 is down nearly 90% in seven days while two quiet uncommons quietly outperform, and the board's rarest stamp shows up on a sealed case.
Shanks and Rocks.D.Xebec Just Joined OP-17's Bleeding List
The alt-art crash we've been tracking widened today, catching a leader-tier Shanks and both Rocks.D.Xebec prints in the same sell-off that's been eating OP-17 for a week.
Kalifa Doubles in a Week and the Board Still Won't Blink
A handful of cards put up spike-of-the-year numbers, but almost none of them earned a buy stamp, and that gap is the real story.
OP-17 Lands Friday. Our Tape Says the Top Usually Arrives First.
The 4th anniversary box is up 20% through presale to A$547. The last three One Piece sets all peaked before release day, and one of them cost peak buyers more than half their money in four weeks.
The 3rd Anniversary Promos Are Repricing Three Days Before OP-17 Lands
Every English 3rd Anniversary Set single is negative on the week and five are on Sell Watch. But the drawdown is concentrated in the A$100 to A$250 band, and the set's A$500 cards barely moved.
OP-17's Alt Arts Crash Back to Earth While the Board's Buy Signals Nearly Vanish
A week that opened with 31 names flashing buy setups closed with just 3, as OP-17's hottest alt arts gave back a third to two-thirds of their launch-week value and sell watch swelled to a seven-day high before finally cooling.
Four OP-17 Sealed Products, One Week, Four Directions
The booster box bounced 18% off its pre-release low while the case fell 14% and kept its Sell Watch. That gap now makes a case 15.5% cheaper per box than buying boxes, the widest spread of the last three sets.
The Board's Real Buy Signal Wasn't the Card That Doubled This Week
Jinbe and Sabo keep stacking gains and staying on Hold, while a handful of quieter cards, including a nearly $2,800 manga rare, actually earned the Accumulate tag today.
The DON!! Tier Just Lost Its Exclusivity, and the Sealed Sets Are Winning
OP-17 puts alternate art DON!! cards into booster packs for the first time. Across 56 DON!! items on our board, the sealed sets are climbing while the loose cards from those exact same sets are down as much as 35.6% in a month.
Jinbe Nearly Doubles and Still Can't Buy Its Way Off Hold
A quiet OP05 anniversary card is up 88% this week alone, and it's not even close to our board's rarest move today.
The Board Went Risk Off Into OP-17 Launch Weekend
Buy Setup stamps fell from 31 to 3 in a single day, on the exact day English OP-17 pre-release opened. The 26 singles all dropped out. Only sealed product survived, and not one of them on price.
A Starter Deck Villain Just Earned a Rare Buy Signal While a Doubled Sabo Gets Ignored
Donquixote Doflamingo flips to a rare Buy Setup stamp today, while a Sabo alt-art that's up triple digits over the past month still can't shake its Hold tag.
Pre-Release Day: OP-17 Has 76 Singles on Our Board and Only 22 Have a Price
English pre-release events start today. We carry 76 OP-17 singles and 54 of them have never had a price. The 22 that do are backed by an average of fewer than eight sales a month.
Two Cards Nearly Doubled This Week, and Neither One Gets a Buy Signal
Jinbe and an alt-art Sabo both ripped 87%+ in seven days, but our system's overheating check is keeping both parked on HOLD.
OP-17 puts four alt-art DON!! cards in packs. Here is where the promo tier stands going in.
For four years DON!! chase cards have been earned, not pulled. OP-17 changes that. Our data shows promo-only DON!!s trading at roughly six times the median of the ones that shipped bundled with a set.
For Fun Just Went Vertical, and the Board Still Isn't Buying It
A cheap promo card tripled in a month and doubled again this week, but our system is holding the line on it, and the rest of the board is a mixed bag of quiet gainers and sharp losers.
Sorting the promo selloff: which slices are actually falling before OP-17
The losers board has worn OPPR colours for days, but the promo tier median is flat. Segmenting it shows only one slice is genuinely deflating, and the real sell-side pressure built somewhere else entirely.
![Sanji (Online Regional 2023) [Finalist]](https://eqqbnafuxciluxqemrif.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/mirror/e3/e3ef31a30363b06a726cfcffdfdccb279431362c.jpg)
A Promo Card Just Doubled in a Week, and the System Still Says Hold
For Fun rockets past 100% weekly gains and Sabo alt art chases it, but this week's biggest movers all share the same flat stamp: hold.
We Marked Our Own Homework: Every Call From August 3, Graded
Two weeks ago the board stamped 162 verdicts. Here is how every one of them is going, including the one that went wrong.
OP17 Adds Two New Rarities. Here Is the OP16 Baseline to Measure It Against.
OP-17 stacks a Treasure Rare and two brand new rarities above Secret Rare. Before the Japanese launch on Saturday, here is what OP16's value curve actually looks like, so we have something honest to compare against in thirty days.
OP16 Is Having a Moment, and Nearly Every Card Still Says Hold
A cluster of OP16 cards is up double to triple digits with the OP17 pre-release five days out, and the board still stamps every one of them HOLD.
The Whitebeard Crew Is Rallying Together, and the Board Still Won't Chase It
A cluster of OP16 Whitebeard Pirates cards is moving in lockstep this week, but the system keeps stamping them HOLD instead of chasing the run.
A Pair of Cheap OP07 Cards Quietly Multiplied This Month, and the Board Still Says Hold
Otama and the event card We're Going to Claim the One Piece!!! have gone from pocket change to real money in about a month, both still stuck on a HOLD stamp. Here's what the numbers actually show.
A Cheap Promo Triples Overnight, and the Board Still Won't Chase It
For Fun rocketed 330% this week and stayed a HOLD, a reminder that our system cares more about room to run than raw speed.
OP17 Sealed Is Moving Unevenly With the Pre-Release One Week Out
With The World's Strongest Warriors eight days from its Aug 21 pre-release, sealed OP17 product is telling two different stories: a steady 30-day climb from one configuration and a choppy round trip from the other.
OP17's Chase List Is Confirmed: Loki Leads a Manga-Heavy Lineup
With The World's Strongest Warriors landing August 21-28, Bandai's chase list is locked in: a new Secret Rare Loki and four Manga-style alt arts for the set's biggest names.
A Gold Luffy Rockets 205.9% in a Week, and the Board Still Says Hold
One of the priciest cards on the ledger just gained over 200% in a week, and our system still won't call it a buy. Here's why that matters.
When One Sale Rewrites the Price
Three ultra-high-value chase cards are up 211% to 414% this month on the strength of a single sale each, and the ledger still won't call them anything stronger than accumulate. Here is why thin markets get a different read.
The Board Says Hold Even When the Chart Says Fly
A gold-foil Luffy doubled in a week and our system still won't chase it, and that restraint is the real story today.
Promo Cards Are Leading the Losers Ahead of OP17
Hundreds of promo prints are sliding into the last OP16-format weekend before OP17 lands, with two Round 1 Promo staples down more than 50% in seven days.
One Piece Day Is Coming, and OP17 Sealed Already Knows It
OP17 sealed is already pricing in One Piece Day. Boxes and cases are climbing on real volume while singles sit flat, waiting for the set to actually hit shelves.
When a 206% Gain Still Doesn't Earn a Buy Signal
Monkey.D.Luffy's Gold parallel rocketed past A$18,000 this week, but our system left it exactly where it started: on HOLD.
A Whole Promo Lineup Got Cut in Half This Week
The Round 1 Promo line took a coordinated hit while a Gold Luffy up 206% still couldn't earn anything more than a HOLD.
Five OP17 Leaders Are Revealed, and OP16's Alt Arts Are Already Feeling It
With five of OP17's six leaders now confirmed and the Aug 28 launch three weeks out, four of OP16's six leader alt arts are down over the past month, two of them enough to trip a SELL WATCH stamp, a pattern the ledger has seen before every set rotation.
A $14 Card and an $18,000 Card Just Did the Same Thing
Carne tripled and a Gold Luffy doubled in the same week, yet both are stuck on HOLD, a reminder that our system cares more about the shape of a spike than the size of it.
OP17's Booster Box Is Already Up 24% Before a Single Pack Ships
OP17 doesn't release until August 28, but its booster box is already up nearly 24% this week. The set's first simultaneous EN and JP launch removes the JP head start collectors have leaned on for pricing reads before, and sealed product looks like it's adjusting early.
A Box of the New Set Gets the Green Light While Triple-Digit Singles Wait
The World's Strongest Warriors booster box climbs into ACCUMULATE territory even as a handful of triple-digit weekly spikes elsewhere stay parked on HOLD.
A Trio of Triple-Digit Spikes, and Not One Buy Signal Among Them
Three cards more than doubled this week, but the system is watching the same overheating pattern in each one and refusing to chase.
Six New Starters, Two Different Markets: What ST-31 Through ST-36 Show Four Days After Launch
The July 31 wave of six starter decks is splitting hard. Single decks are down as much as 41% since launch while the sealed displays they came out of are flat or climbing. Here is what that divergence is telling us.
A Five-Figure Uta Keeps Climbing, and the System Still Won't Chase It
A Treasure Cup Uta cracks A$12,800 with a 51% weekly pop, but the discipline that's kept the sell list honest all year says hold, not buy.
OP17 Confirms Manga Rare Yonko: What It Could Mean for the Originals
OP17 brings Manga Rare treatment to all four original Yonko for the game's 4th anniversary. We checked what that's doing, and not doing, to the OP01 and OP02 cards that already carry those same characters.
I bought two cards on our own buy calls. They tanked. Here's everything we changed.
The founder followed the Ledger's stamps into two tournament promos and lost. Instead of quietly fixing it, here is the full autopsy — and the new band-aware playbook it produced.
Treasure Cups Go Fully Offline: Reading OP16's Leaders Before the August Weekend
Treasure Cups drop online play entirely this season, right as OP16's alt-art leaders show a synchronized pre-rotation slide. Here's what the numbers say before four cups land in Oklahoma City, Calgary, Santiago, and Zagreb.
A Law Upgrade Leads a Quiet Reshuffle Across the Board Today
Trafalgar Law's OP05-027 print earns a fresh ACCUMULATE stamp on a steady climb, while the sell list picks up a few new names elsewhere.
A 116% Weekly Spike Still Couldn't Buy Its Way Onto the Buy List
Today's biggest single day mover jumped over 100% in a week and is still sitting on hold, a clean look at how the system tells a hot card from an overheated one.
A Serial-Numbered Ace Just Cracked A$14K, and the Sell List Got Shorter Today
A rare serial-numbered Ace headlines a wild gainers list, while a quiet wave of SELL_WATCH cards flipping back to HOLD might be the more telling story.
Drum Kingdom Just Put Up a 414% Week, and the System Still Won't Chase It
A finalist card set more than quintupled in seven days, joining a run of promo and regional cards posting triple-digit weekly gains, while the system's overheating check keeps most of them on ACCUMULATE rather than a full green light.
Six Leaders, One Release Day: Early Pricing on the ST-31 to ST-36 Starter Wave
Bandai ships six starter decks on the same day for the first time in the game's history, and pre-release pricing already shows a clear split. We stacked all six against the last decade of starters we track to see where early demand is landing before a single deck hits shelves.
A Championship Finalist Set Just Jumped Over 400% in a Week, and the System Still Says Hold It
Drum Kingdom's finalist card set went vertical this week while a Round 1 Promo Sanji tipped into sell territory, a reminder that big and buy are not always the same call.