When a Month's Worth of Gains Lands in One Week
Crocodile's weekly gain of 145% outruns its 30-day move, a sign the whole rally landed in seven days, so the board keeps it on HOLD. Plus two thin-market promotions to Accumulate.
Normally when we see a big 7-day number, the 30-day number is bigger too, a sign the move has been building for a while. Not today. Crocodile is the odd one out, and it is worth slowing down on.
Crocodile (OP14-120) is up 145.3% over the past week but only 125.4% over the past month. When the weekly figure outruns the monthly one, it means the card actually drifted lower for the first three weeks of the window (by our arithmetic, roughly 8%) before more than doubling in the last seven days. It now sits at about A$22.95 with a liquidity grade of A and around 1,500 sales in 30 days, so this is a busy market rather than a thin one. Our system still has it on HOLD. The model is deliberately cautious about near-vertical spikes, because a headline percentage tells you where a card has been, not where it settles.
Today's top moves
Shakuyaku (Premium Card Collection, Best Selection Vol. 5) is the loudest mover on the board, up 157.7% this week and 265.5% over the month to about A$20.07. It is also a HOLD, with 390 sales in 30 days behind it.
Lucky.Roux (PRB02-003) climbed 82.8% in seven days to about A$21.70, part of a longer 168.3% monthly run. Another HOLD, and another card with deep trading volume, at roughly 1,585 sales over the month.
Stick-Stickem Meteora (OP05-039, anniversary printing) shows identical 7-day and 30-day gains of 63.5%, meaning the whole month's story is really this week's story. It is priced at about A$34.99 and has no recorded sales in our 30-day window, so treat that number as an asking-price signal more than a transaction record.
Two promotions to ACCUMULATE
Not everything hot stayed parked on HOLD. Marco (EB02 SP) jumped 45.1% to about A$2,139.90 and moved to ACCUMULATE, and Jewelry Bonney's Offline Regional Finalist print (P-085) rose 28.0% to about A$383.76, also earning an ACCUMULATE stamp after a 134.7% month.
A fair caveat on both: each has a single recorded sale in the last 30 days and a liquidity grade of C. With so few transactions, one sale can set the price, so these stamps describe a thin market as much as a trend.
Under the hood
The board as a whole cooled a touch versus yesterday, with sell-watch and accumulate counts both ticking down while plain holds and rebound-watch cards picked up the slack. A quieter day than the headline percentages suggest. Hot cards, cool board.
What we're watching
First, whether Crocodile holds its new level over the next few sessions or gives some of it back, given how compressed the move was. Second, whether Shakuyaku and Lucky.Roux keep their sales volume as prices rise, since a rally on steady volume reads very differently from one on fading volume. Third, any second sale on Marco or Bonney, which would tell us whether the current prices are repeatable or a one-off. None of this is advice, just what the data shows today, and we will report back as it moves.