A Promo Pulls a 320% Week, and the Board Still Won't Chase It
Ulti is up 320% in seven days and still lands on HOLD, while a quieter Crocodile Finalist promo earns the day's only ACCUMULATE stamp.
Some weeks the board hands you a headline and dares you to believe it. Today it's Ulti.
The Event Pack Vol. 6 promo (P-077) is up 320.3% over the last seven days and 255.6% over the last thirty, and it now sits at about A$14.56 (US$10.17). That is a very big move off a very small base, and the kind of chart that makes collectors do a double take. Our system looked at the same numbers and stamped it HOLD. The overheating check is doing exactly what it was built to do: in our 2.5-year backtest, entries after a spike this steep were closer to a coin flip, with a negative median return. The data does not say the card is going back down. It says the easy part of the move has already happened. There is also a quieter caveat: the TCGplayer price on this card has barely been moving between updates, which usually points to a thin market, so the quoted price deserves some scepticism.
Today's top movers
Sugar's alt art (OP10-003, Royal Blood) is up 49.8% this week and 152.0% on the month, now about A$54.43. It is also HOLD, for the same reason: past the point where our numbers keep working. One thing makes it more interesting than most, though. Live eBay listings have dropped from 135 to 95 over the month, a supply squeeze that has historically shown up before price runs.
Sanji from the CS 2023 Event Pack (P-034) climbed 48.6% this week and 77.2% on the month to about A$119.80. Unlike the cards around it, it has not tripped the too-hot-to-chase check, but the overheating check has, so it stays on HOLD. Older event promos are clearly back in demand, with a fixed print run meeting renewed interest.
The manga Monkey D. Luffy from OP13 (OP13-118) added 46.6% on the week and 65.7% on the month, now about A$32.87. It is HOLD as well, flagged as too hot to chase, with eBay supply sitting at 200 listings against 187 a month ago, so there is no squeeze behind this one.
The one green light
Crocodile's Online Regional 2023 Finalist print (OP02-053) is the only card in this group carrying an ACCUMULATE stamp. It is up 40.8% on the week and 123.2% on the month, now about A$321.42 (US$224.50). The weekly move is inside the range we have tested, and the card sits in the $200+ band, where qualified entries ran 84% winners at eight weeks with a median gain of 21% in held-out validation. The pattern that fired is "riding the high": strength near an all-time high with the trend intact. That is the distinction worth sitting with. Several cards posted bigger single-week numbers today, but this is the one whose climb stayed inside the tested range. One caution from the same data: its liquidity grade is C, and its TCGplayer price has not updated in 19 days, so this is a thin market and the headline price may lag what a real sale would fetch.
![Crocodile (Online Regional 2023) [Finalist]](https://eqqbnafuxciluxqemrif.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/mirror/6f/6f6d4e4b95b983122b5b92f770e95740a6ea2747.jpg)
What we're watching
Whether Ulti, Sugar and Luffy cool back into the tested range, which is the condition for their stamps to change. Whether Crocodile's price refreshes and confirms the climb with fresh data. And the calendar: the EB-05 Extra Booster lands on 30 October, OP-18 release-event week begins 13 November, and OP-18 itself arrives on 20 November, a stretch where prior-set singles have historically softened while new chase cards take attention. This is market data, not advice. The board is simply showing which charts are steady and which have gone vertical.