Ulti Is Up 375% in a Week, and the Board Still Says Hold
A A$16 promo spikes about 375% in a week and still lands on HOLD. Here is why the overheating check sits it out, and which slower mover earns an ACCUMULATE instead.
The loudest number on the board today belongs to a A$16 promo, and our system is deliberately not chasing it.
Ulti from Event Pack Vol. 6 is up about 375% over the past week and roughly 295% over the past month, now sitting at A$16.11. It is the kind of chart that gets screenshotted and passed around. Yet the card carries a HOLD stamp, not a buy stamp. The reason is written into the rationale: a "too hot to chase" rule and an overheating check, both built from a 2.5 year backtest. In the under-$10 band, entries after a spike this steep were closer to a coin flip, with a negative median return. The check says nothing about whether the card is good. It says the easy part of the move has probably already happened, and that the stamp can return if the price cools into a range the data has tested.
The rest of today's top movers
Ulti is not alone. Several cheap promos are climbing at once, and the same caution applies to most of them.
Buggy from Event Pack Vol. 8 is up about 60% on the week and 69% on the month to A$15.84. It also trips the overheating check, so HOLD. One detail worth noting: live eBay listings have dropped from 31 to 23 over the month, which is the sort of thinning supply that has historically shown up before price runs. Interesting, but not enough on its own to override the spike rule.
The OP13 manga Monkey D. Luffy from Carrying On His Will has gained about 54% this week and 72% this month, now at A$35.00. It trades on real volume, with 1,874 sales logged in the last 30 days, so this is a move with a lot of hands behind it. Still HOLD.
Sanji & Pudding from the Anime 25th Collection is up about 44% on the week and 67% on the month, at A$21.73, with 713 sales in 30 days. Also HOLD.
The slower burn
![Crocodile (Online Regional 2023) [Finalist]](https://eqqbnafuxciluxqemrif.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/mirror/6f/6f6d4e4b95b983122b5b92f770e95740a6ea2747.jpg)
The one card in this group with a constructive stamp is Crocodile from the 2023 Online Regional Finalist run. It is up about 41% on the week and 123% on the month, now A$320.16, and it is marked ACCUMULATE. Because it sits in the $200+ band, it is judged against that band's own record: in held-out validation, qualified entries there ran 84% winners at eight weeks with a median gain of about 21%. That is a historical read on the pattern, not a promise about this card. There is also a real caveat. Its liquidity tier is C and the quoted TCGplayer price has not changed in 21 days, so treat that figure as a thin-market quote rather than a firm price.
The wider board
Across today's snapshot the mood loosened slightly. SELL_WATCH fell from 720 to 681, ACCUMULATE rose from 534 to 554, and BUY_SETUP slipped from 20 to 16. Fewer names are being flagged for weakness, and a few more are earning quiet confidence.
What we're watching
Whether Ulti and Buggy cool into a steadier range, which is the condition the model says would bring a buy stamp back. Whether Crocodile's price prints a fresh sale instead of a stale quote. And EB-05 on October 30, followed by OP-18 pre-release week from November 13 and its street date on November 20, when new supply and fresh meta can reshuffle promo demand quickly. This is market data, not financial advice.