Four Luffy Prints Are Sliding, and the Board Says It's Barely About Luffy

Four different Monkey.D. Luffy prints are sitting on double-digit seven-day declines as of today's report. The 4th Anniversary promo [[card:c8a224a6-57c5-4c63-88cd-08008656c57b]] is down 22.9% to $14.13 USD (about $19.75 AUD) on 8,579 recorded sales in the last 30 days. The ST-01 Straw Hat Crew starter card [[card:b75f8fb4-6c2e-4051-bd37-4f9611484912]] is down 32.1% to $5.41 USD (roughly $7.56 AUD). The Event Pack Vol. 9 promo [[card:611e3686-2470-42d8-8326-31b47038073e]] is down 24.9% to $32.51 USD (about $45.44 AUD). The Round 1 Promo [[card:0c9a928b-3e90-4ed6-8326-e20145459ce5]] is down 26.7% to $143.84 USD (roughly $201.03 AUD). All four carry our liquidity tier A, meaning enough recorded sales that the moves aren't an illusion built on a handful of trades.

Four different supply stories moving the same direction on the same character invites an obvious question. Is Luffy oversaturated after four-plus years of being the game's most reprinted face, or is this just what a normal week looks like for a character stamped on hundreds of different cards?

We checked. Today's board carries 5,349 products with enough sales volume to trust the momentum figure, and 262 of them, about 4.9%, are Luffy prints. Of the 275 products across the entire board showing a seven-day decline of 20% or worse, 15 are Luffy cards, about 5.5% of that group. That is a mild overrepresentation, not a dramatic one. If Luffy were genuinely out of favor as a character, we would expect his share of the board's losers to run well ahead of his share of the board. It does not, not today.

There is a smaller, more specific pattern worth noting. Two of the four cards above, the 4th Anniversary promo and the Event Pack Vol. 9 promo, are PR-rarity promotional prints. Across the whole board, PR-rarity cards are running a median seven-day change of -0.4% versus roughly flat for everything else, and an average of -1.5% versus -0.6%. Promos as a class are running softer than the board right now, likely a mix of ongoing store-tournament and event-pack waves keeping fresh supply coming in behind them. That is a real, if modest, tailwind pushing these specific prints down, separate from anything about Luffy himself.

So the honest read: this looks less like character fatigue and more like two ordinary things landing on the same name in the same week, a generally soft promo tier and the plain math of being attached to more cards than almost anyone else in the game. Worth remembering the next time a cluster of same-character losers shows up on the board. Check the base rate before reaching for a story.

What we're watching

The promo-supply calendar does not slow down from here. September 18 brings both the Set Sail Deck Set SD01 release and the Championship 26-27 NA Finals in Dallas, a weekend that typically pushes a fresh batch of event and participation promos into circulation. If PR-rarity softness is genuinely a supply story, that weekend is a reasonable point to check whether the promo tier's median dips further before it stabilizes.