Signal Ledger
Every call our rules make is logged the day it fires and graded automatically 4 and 8 weeks later. Wins, losses, and all. No cherry-picking; the table below is generated from the database and cannot be edited. New here? Watch the playbook fire on a famous card →
How to read this ledger (30 seconds)
- The stamp is the call. BUY WATCH means our rules flagged a buy-side setup that day. SELL WATCH means the rules flagged it as a candidate to trim. REBOUND WATCH is a speculative bounce flag. HOLD means no rule fired, which is most cards on most days.
- Every BUY WATCH belongs to exactly one buy tier. The tier tells you which rule fired, and each tier has its own graded record. High Conviction is the strongest and rarest. Momentum is the most common and the weakest. When you see a tier chip on a card, the tier scoreboard below is that chip's track record.
- The two tables measure different things, on purpose. The first table blends all tiers together and grades at 4 weeks. The tier scoreboard splits them apart and grades at 8 weeks. That is why BUY WATCH reads 74.4% in one place and High Conviction reads 89.1% in another: one is the average of the whole buy side, the other is the best rule on its own.
- The backtest is frozen; the live record grows. The backtest tables were locked on August 3, 2026, when Playbook v2 shipped, and they do not change. Every call since then lands in the Live record further down, graded in public as it matures.
The blended record: every stamp, all tiers together, graded at 4 weeks
Before a single rule went live, we replayed it across two and a half years of real recorded prices, logging a call every day a stamp would have fired and grading it 4 and 8 weeks later, winners and losers alike. Tens of thousands of calls, no cherry-picking. This is the record our stamps earned:
Signals
16350
Win 4w
74.4%
Avg 4w
+17.8%
Avg 8w
+32.0%
Signals
2097
Win 4w
54.7%
Avg 4w
+12.9%
Avg 8w
+22.5%
Signals
16790
Win 4w
69.6%
Avg 4w
-6.1%
Avg 8w
-3.1%
| Stamp | Signals | Win rate 4w | Avg 4w | Avg 8w |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy Watch | 16350 | 74.4% | +17.8% | +32.0% |
| Rebound Watch | 2097 | 54.7% | +12.9% | +22.5% |
| Sell Watch | 16790 | 69.6% | -6.1% | -3.1% |
A win means the price rose after a buy-side call, and fell after a Sell Watch call. For context, the market itself rose only about 45% of the time over the same window, and the median card fell. The Buy Watch row is the average of the five buy tiers in the scoreboard below; the strong tiers pull it up and the common Momentum tier pulls it down. Frozen at the Playbook v2 lock, August 3, 2026. Shown as Buy Watch across the site; logged in the record as ACCUMULATE since day one.
The tier scoreboard: each buy tier on its own, graded at 8 weeks
Every BUY WATCH flag carries exactly one of these tier chips, and this is each chip's own record. See High Conviction on a card? Historically 89% of those were higher 8 weeks later and the typical one never traded below its flag price. See Momentum? Solid but the weakest tier, so size accordingly. For every tier we measured the full price path over the 8 weeks after each flag: the return, whether it was up at both check-ins, the lowest it traded versus the flag price, and the strictest test of all: up at 8 weeks having never dipped more than 5% below the flag.
Up at 8w
89.1%
Median return
+22.2%
Up & held
87.9%
Up at 8w
73.8%
Median return
+15.3%
Up & held
67.3%
Up at 8w
78.0%
Median return
+13.8%
Up & held
76.2%
Up at 8w
81.1%
Median return
+12.1%
Up & held
79.8%
Up at 8w
64.4%
Median return
+11.7%
Up & held
57.7%
| Tier | Flags | Up at 8w | Up at both check-ins | Median return | Typical worst dip | Up & held (≤5% dip) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High ConvictionOur most reliable buy tier. | 1,530 | 89.1% | 82.5% | +22.2% | 0.0% | 87.9% |
Event RunnerFixed-print promos breaking to new highs. | 7,739 | 73.8% | 65.1% | +15.3% | 0.0% | 67.3% |
Riding the HighPremium product near its all-time high, still climbing. | 1,078 | 78.0% | 70.7% | +13.8% | 0.0% | 76.2% |
Premium ClimbHigh-end product grinding steadily upward. | 322 | 81.1% | 74.8% | +12.1% | 0.0% | 79.8% |
MomentumStrong trend with room to run below its former peak. | 3,647 | 64.4% | 58.2% | +11.7% | -0.2% | 57.7% |
A positive “typical worst dip” means the median flag in that tier never traded below its flag price at all during the 8 weeks. Tier flags total slightly less than the BUY WATCH signal count above because flags too recent to have a full 8-week window are not graded here. Backtested against 2.5 years of real recorded prices; frozen at the Playbook v2 lock, August 3, 2026.
Live record (tracking since Aug 13, 2026)
The backtest above earned the trust; this table keeps it. Every call is now logged in public the day it fires and graded automatically at 4 and 8 weeks against its flag price. We cannot edit or delete a call once it is logged. The first grades land 4 weeks after launch, and the win-rate columns fill in from there. Watch the record hold, or watch it break. Either way it happens right here.
Playbook v2, August 3, 2026. During the pre-launch window we found a weakness in our own rules (the founder lost money on two of our calls — the write-up is on the blog), re-backtested the entire engine, and rebuilt it around price bands. Pre-launch calls made under the old rules were archived and live grading restarted the same day. From launch, this record is permanent: no resets, no edits, ever.
Calls
182
Graded
80
Win 4w
50.0%
Avg 4w
+0.8%
Avg 8w
-3.8%
Calls
2154
Graded
1244
Win 4w
64.8%
Avg 4w
+7.6%
Avg 8w
+5.6%
Calls
311
Graded
197
Win 4w
36.5%
Avg 4w
-0.1%
Avg 8w
+8.4%
Calls
3190
Graded
2086
Win 4w
78.9%
Avg 4w
-13.6%
Avg 8w
-19.1%
| Stamp | Calls | Graded | Win rate 4w | Avg 4w | Avg 8w |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy Setup | 182 | 80 | 50.0% | +0.8% | -3.8% |
| Buy Watch | 2154 | 1244 | 64.8% | +7.6% | +5.6% |
| Rebound Watch | 311 | 197 | 36.5% | -0.1% | +8.4% |
| Sell Watch | 3190 | 2086 | 78.9% | -13.6% | -19.1% |
Recent calls
| Product | Call date | Stamp | Entry | 4w fwd | 8w fwd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![Crocodile (Online Regional 2023) [Finalist]](https://eqqbnafuxciluxqemrif.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/mirror/6f/6f6d4e4b95b983122b5b92f770e95740a6ea2747.jpg) Crocodile (Online Regional 2023) [Finalist]OPPR · OP02-053 | Oct 17, 2026 | Buy Watch | $224.50 | grading… | grading… |
 Vinsmoke ReijuEB02 · OP06-042 | Oct 17, 2026 | Buy Watch | $781.30 | grading… | grading… |
 Monkey D. LuffyEB02 · OP05-060 | Oct 17, 2026 | Buy Watch | $4,999.99 | grading… | grading… |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $29.98 | grading… | grading… | |
 Monkey.D.Luffy - ST21-014 (Luffy Deck)LT01 · ST21-014 | Oct 17, 2026 | Buy Watch | $11.10 | grading… | grading… |
 DON!! Card (Shanks)PRB02 | Oct 17, 2026 | Buy Watch | $3.75 | grading… | grading… |
 Thatch (Tournament Pack 2026 Vol. 4)OPPR · ST15-004 | Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $2.45 | grading… | grading… |
 Charlotte BruleeST34 · ST34-003 | Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $5.64 | grading… | grading… |
 DON!! CardSPR01 | Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $2.91 | grading… | grading… |
 Monkey.D.LuffyOP17 · OP17-093 | Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $2.46 | grading… | grading… |
 Monkey.D.LuffyOP10 · OP10-118 | Oct 17, 2026 | Buy Watch | $4.63 | grading… | grading… |
 Crocodile - OP14-120OP14 · OP14-120 | Oct 17, 2026 | Buy Setup | $15.94 | grading… | grading… |
 Buggy (Judge Pack Vol. 2)OPPR · OP03-008 | Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $10.36 | grading… | grading… |
 Charlotte PuddingOP11 · OP11-070 | Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $2.47 | grading… | grading… |
 Monkey.D.Luffy (TR)OP08 · OP07-109 | Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $208.26 | grading… | grading… |
 Monkey.D.LuffyOPPR · ST13-003 | Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $93.52 | grading… | grading… |
 Leo (Premium Card Collection -6 assort vol.1-)OPPR · OP10-057 | Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $54.13 | grading… | grading… |
 Jewelry BonneyOP12 · OP12-118 | Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $6.41 | grading… | grading… |
 Charlotte SmoothieOP17RE · OP17-106 | Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $5.57 | grading… | grading… |
 Kouzuki Oden (Regional Participation Pack 2026 Vol.2)OPPR · OP14-026 | Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $11.28 | grading… | grading… |
 Trafalgar Law (Judge Pack Vol. 8)OPPR · OP12-106 | Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $32.07 | grading… | grading… |
 Kouzuki HiyoriEB01 · EB01-013 | Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $18.34 | grading… | grading… |
 SatoriPRB01 · OP05-105 | Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $9.06 | grading… | grading… |
 DON!! Card (Yamato)PRB01 | Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $3.63 | grading… | grading… |
 LokiOP17 · OP17-119 | Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $22.64 | grading… | grading… |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $24.81 | grading… | grading… | |
 Nami (Premium Card Collection -Best Selection Vol. 4-)OPPR · OP09-070 | Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $72.96 | grading… | grading… |
 Donquixote Rosinante (Judge Pack Vol. 2)OPPR · OP02-108 | Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $3.52 | grading… | grading… |
 Slow-Slow Beam Sword (Pirate Foil)PRB02 · OP07-076 | Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $2.65 | grading… | grading… |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Sell Watch | $7.62 | grading… | grading… |