Signal Ledger
Every call our rules make is logged the day it fires and graded automatically 4 and 8 weeks later — wins, losses, and all. No cherry-picking; the table below is generated from the database and cannot be edited.
The record: every rule, tested against 2.5 years of market history
Before a single rule went live, we replayed it across two and a half years of real recorded prices, logging a call every day a stamp would have fired and grading it 4 and 8 weeks later, winners and losers alike. Tens of thousands of calls, no cherry-picking. This is the record our stamps earned:
| Stamp | Signals | Win rate 4w | Avg 4w | Avg 8w |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accumulate | 4461 | 76.4% | +15.9% | +24.8% |
| Rebound Watch | 773 | 51.0% | +7.4% | +11.2% |
| Sell Watch | 5613 | 69.1% | -6.0% | -5.8% |
A win means the price rose after a buy-side call, and fell after a Sell Watch call. For context, the market itself rose only about 45% of the time over the same window, and the median card fell.
Buy-tier scoreboard — did it go up AND hold?
Win rate alone doesn't tell you what the ride felt like. For every ACCUMULATE tier we also measured the full price path over the 8 weeks after each flag: the return, whether it was up at both check-ins, the lowest it traded versus the flag price, and the strictest test of all — up at 8 weeks having never dipped more than 5% below the flag.
| Tier | Flags | Up at 8w | Up at both check-ins | Median return | Typical worst dip | Up & held (≤5% dip) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High ConvictionOur most reliable buy tier. | 944 | 83.9% | 78.8% | +22.1% | +1.5% | 80.8% |
Riding the HighPremium product near its all-time high, still climbing. | 472 | 84.3% | 78.4% | +16.8% | 0.0% | 82.6% |
Premium ClimbHigh-end product grinding steadily upward. | 1,286 | 74.5% | 66.6% | +11.2% | 0.0% | 72.6% |
MomentumStrong trend with room to run below its former peak. | 1,405 | 65.3% | 60.1% | +14.8% | 0.0% | 58.5% |
A positive “typical worst dip” means the median flag in that tier never traded below its flag price at all during the 8 weeks. Backtested against 2.5 years of real recorded prices; refreshed with each monthly strategy review.
Live record (tracking since Jul 14, 2026)
The backtest above earned the trust; this table keeps it. Every call is now logged in public the day it fires and graded automatically at 4 and 8 weeks against its flag price. We cannot edit or delete a call once it is logged. The first grades land 4 weeks after launch, and the win-rate columns fill in from there. Watch the record hold, or watch it break. Either way it happens right here.
| Stamp | Calls | Graded | Win rate 4w | Avg 4w | Avg 8w |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accumulate | 195 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Rebound Watch | 10 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Sell Watch | 57 | 0 | — | — | — |
Recent calls
| Product | Call date | Stamp | Entry | 4w fwd | 8w fwd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Monkey.D.Luffy (P-061)ST16 · P-061 | Jul 16, 2026 | Accumulate | $4.94 | grading… | grading… |
 Gol D. RogerOP09 · OP09-118 | Jul 16, 2026 | Accumulate | $5,500.00 | grading… | grading… |
 ShanksST16 · ST16-004 | Jul 16, 2026 | Accumulate | $3.24 | grading… | grading… |
 Gum-Gum Giant Sumo SlapST10 · ST10-015 | Jul 16, 2026 | Sell Watch | $3.83 | grading… | grading… |
 Dracule Mihawk - OP14-119OP14 · OP14-119 | Jul 16, 2026 | Accumulate | $4.27 | grading… | grading… |
![Crocodile (Online Regional 2023) [Finalist]](https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/514035_400w.jpg) Crocodile (Online Regional 2023) [Finalist]OPPR · OP02-053 | Jul 16, 2026 | Accumulate | $100.59 | grading… | grading… |
 Mr.3(Galdino) - PRB02-009PRB02 · PRB02-009 | Jul 16, 2026 | Accumulate | $6.40 | grading… | grading… |
 Jewelry BonneyOP13 · OP13-108 | Jul 16, 2026 | Sell Watch | $3.29 | grading… | grading… |
 Perona - OP14-033OP14 · OP14-033 | Jul 16, 2026 | Accumulate | $39.04 | grading… | grading… |
 Roronoa Zoro & SanjiST12 · ST12-001 | Jul 16, 2026 | Sell Watch | $16.00 | grading… | grading… |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Accumulate | $365.00 | grading… | grading… | |
 KuzanOP16 · OP16-063 | Jul 16, 2026 | Sell Watch | $6.96 | grading… | grading… |
 Trafalgar LawST10 · ST10-010 | Jul 16, 2026 | Sell Watch | $5.50 | grading… | grading… |
 Portgas.D.Ace (Special Goods Set -Ace/Sabo/Luffy-)OPPR · OP03-001 | Jul 16, 2026 | Accumulate | $36.38 | grading… | grading… |
 Monkey.D.Luffy - P-006 (Retail Promo)OPPR · P-006 | Jul 16, 2026 | Accumulate | $19.31 | grading… | grading… |
 Portgas.D.AceST13 · ST13-002 | Jul 16, 2026 | Sell Watch | $2.46 | grading… | grading… |
 Nami (Sealed Battle Kit Vol. 1)OPPR · P-053 | Jul 16, 2026 | Accumulate | $2.21 | grading… | grading… |
 Monkey.D.Luffy (One Piece Film Red)OPPR · P-022 | Jul 16, 2026 | Sell Watch | $28.15 | grading… | grading… |
 Emporio.IvankovOP16 · OP16-026 | Jul 16, 2026 | Sell Watch | $10.03 | grading… | grading… |
 Monkey.D.LuffyST01 · ST01-012 | Jul 16, 2026 | Sell Watch | $6.53 | grading… | grading… |
 Prisoner of Impel DownOP16 · OP16-042 | Jul 16, 2026 | Sell Watch | $4.84 | grading… | grading… |
 Vinsmoke ReijuOP12 · OP12-063 | Jul 16, 2026 | Sell Watch | $2.32 | grading… | grading… |
 Scratchmen Apoo - EB01-015PRB02 · EB01-015 | Jul 16, 2026 | Sell Watch | $9.22 | grading… | grading… |
 Marshall D. TeachOP16 · OP16-119 | Jul 16, 2026 | Sell Watch | $48.89 | grading… | grading… |
 Monkey.D.LuffyST13 · ST13-015 | Jul 16, 2026 | Accumulate | $34.19 | grading… | grading… |
 Monkey.D.LuffyST10 · ST10-006 | Jul 16, 2026 | Sell Watch | $2.34 | grading… | grading… |
 PeronaOP12 · OP12-034 | Jul 16, 2026 | Accumulate | $46.97 | grading… | grading… |
 Trafalgar Law (Reprint)PRB01 · ST10-010 | Jul 16, 2026 | Sell Watch | $4.42 | grading… | grading… |
 Marshall.D.TeachOP09 · OP09-093 | Jul 16, 2026 | Sell Watch | $33.08 | grading… | grading… |
 Ground DeathOP14 · OP14-096 | Jul 16, 2026 | Rebound Watch | $9.11 | grading… | grading… |
