We Marked Our Own Homework: Every Call From August 3, Graded
Two weeks ago the board stamped 162 verdicts. Here is how every one of them is going, including the one that went wrong.
On August 3 the Ledger did what it does every day: it looked at every card, box, and tin we track and stamped a verdict on each one. Most got HOLD, which is the board saying "nothing actionable today." But 162 products fired a real call that morning: 124 ACCUMULATE, 36 SELL WATCH, and 2 REBOUND WATCH. Each one was logged in the public Ledger with that day's price attached, where nobody, including us, can edit it.
Our official grades land automatically at 4 and 8 weeks. But we got curious at the halfway mark, so we pulled every August 3 call and checked it against today's prices. Here is the unedited result.
The sell warnings were the star
Of the 36 cards stamped SELL WATCH, 31 have fallen since, an 86% strike rate, with a median drop of 14%. Above $10 it was a clean sweep: all 15 mid and high value sell warnings came true.
Uta EB03-061 was flagged at $6.88 and sits around $4.84 today, down 30%.
The Regional Participation Zoro OP07-113 was flagged at $60.49 and trades near $44 now. Anyone who listened to that one call kept about $16 in their pocket.
They were two of many. Here are eight more cards the board warned about on August 3, and what has happened to each since:
Saint Mjosgard (Premium Card Collection -Best Selection Vol. 6-)
Monkey.D.Luffy - ST10-006 (3rd Anniversary Treasure Campaign Pack)
Rosinante & Law
Nami
Black Maria (Illustration Box Vol.2)
Mamaragan
Yamato
Girl (OP14 Release Event Winner)
The buy calls are tracking ahead of promise
The 124 ACCUMULATE stamps average +2.2% in two weeks, with 77% of them at or above their entry price. The best of them was not a chase card at all.
Event Pack Vol. 1 was stamped ACCUMULATE at $28.50 and sells for $44.99 today, up 58% in two weeks.
And it was far from alone. Here are eight more August 3 buy calls and where they stand two weeks later:
Now the part most trackers would not print
Wyper OP15-114 was stamped ACCUMULATE at $2.01. It is 94 cents today, down 53%. That is a bad call, and it stays in the Ledger forever like every other one.
Here is why we are not hiding from it: Wyper lives in the Under $10 band, and the backtest has always said cheap cards are the noisiest place the playbook operates. It is exactly why every verdict on this site wears its price band next to the stamp. Split the same audit by band and the pattern is unmistakable:
- Under $10: 53 buy calls, 66% finished at or above entry. 21 sell warnings, 76% fell.
- $10 to $50: 40 buy calls, 85% at or above entry. All 10 sell warnings fell.
- $50 to $200: 17 buy calls, 88% at or above entry. All 5 sell warnings fell.
- $200 and up: 14 buy calls, 86% at or above entry. No sell warnings fired.
The backtest promised buy calls that finish higher 66% to 79% of the time depending on band, measured at 4 weeks. At just 2 weeks, every band from $10 up is running at 85% to 88%, and the one band sitting at the bottom of the range, Under $10 at 66%, is precisely the band we always said was the roughest. The system is underperforming exactly where it told you it would, and over delivering everywhere else.
That is the whole point of a public track record. Anyone can check this: every August 3 call is sitting in the Ledger right now, graded where nobody can touch it, and the 4 week official marks land automatically in early September whether they flatter us or not.
Observations from the data, not financial advice. Prices are US market values recorded by our daily pipeline; your own buys and sells are your own calls to make.